Why Did The Polls Get It Wrong In 1992?

Why did the public opinion survey fail in 1992? Polls play an important role in politics and the government can use them to decide when to convene them to elect and the other aspects of the pre-election campaign movement. Throughout the history of opinion polls, public opinion polls were on average on the average until public opinion began to be widely used before the election, until 1945, until the final general election before 1987 and 1992, polling shares 3 %was. Between. Three major parties and "other" categories (Crewe, 1992, p. 129).

Before seeing the second explanation, public opinion polls are totally wrong, but very accurate opinion polls should see polls in 1992 different from the past. Voting practices have not changed much over the past few years, voting style, problems, samples, etc. have not changed so much. One of the reasons is that public opinion polls do not check whether they have the right to vote, so there is a possibility that there will be a big difference in opinion poll results. This is likely to cause such big problems because many people may participate in a poll when they do not register for voting because they avoid paying headtax. In general, avoiding population tax in this way is a worker voter, which explains why the predictive vote indicates that the Labor Party is in the lead position. On the other hand, some people may think that they have the right to vote only if they pay their head taxes, but they are not actually registered.

"Poll" is the attitude of some people. Please see how public opinion polls are wrong! There were several tweets that the poll actually took place. This indicates that the owner of the opinion poll is conservative and correcting the results (that is, because the political interests are limited, professional trust has been compromised). When opinion polls are badly wrong, it is a matter of almost always hurting Labor's interests. Two recent large-scale public opinion polls occurred in 1992 and 2015. In both cases the reality of the Labor Party was far worse. In the 13 elections since 1966, the pre-election vote only weakened the labor's three outcomes: a small part of 2010 in the year of 1983 (Labor's results remain devastating) and the first of 1974 The second general election brought an interruption of Congress

Yes, this year's poll was certainly wrong (far worse than 2012), it was closed in 2008 (indeed, the opinion poll of 2008 was higher than the year 2016) It is. But that year did not notice because polls predicted the right winner (Balak Obama), they predicted that Obama will win with lower profits than he actually did. I agree that it is necessary for the opinion pollers to evaluate why they left this year (many smart people agree that there are many different ways including the underestimation of the voter turnout rate in the Midwest and the voter turnout rate just before) I am thinking about the reason). Accurate public opinion survey However, opinion poll itself is uncertain and I think that this year is not a special disaster in voting forecasts. After all, if only one out of 100 voters moved from Donald Trump to Hillary · Clinton