Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large U.S. cities?☆

There is no evidence to support the systematic Ferguson effect the large US cities have on the overall trends of violence and property crime.

According to taxonomy analysis, Ferguson's theft crime rate rose only in the following month of Ferguson.

In cities where the murder rate is rising, the proportion of black residents is high, the socioeconomic status is low, the more police are per capita, the higher the proportion of violence before Ferguson is.

It is widely speculated that a white policeman in Ferguson, Missouri, had a series of similar incidents across the country with young black men who were not armed, which led to an increase in the crime rate in the United States. In this survey we examined the Ferguson effect of the crime rate in large US cities.

A summary and breakdown of the first part of the monthly criminal data on the data request and website of the police station in 81 major cities in the United States was collected around August 2014. Using the discontinuous growth model, we examine the influence from outside of Ferguson and judge whether there is a change in the direction of criminal trends adjusted seasonally in the months after Ferguson's shooting.

There is no evidence to support systematic changes in Ferguson's overall violence and property crime trends, but according to taxonomy analysis, Ferguson's previous burglary crime rate has increased in the months following Ferguson. In addition, the tendency of crime in the Post Felgenson period has changed further, and the homicide in certain cities is surely increasing. Generally, any Ferguson effect is dominated by cities with high historical violence levels, numerous black residents, and socioeconomically disadvantaged cities.

Nationwide discourse surrounding the Ferguson effect has long been anecdotal and data deficient and criminalists are primarily interacting with one of the most prominent contemporary problems in criminal justice. Our findings are basically consistent with many years of knowledge of criminal science, ie the tendency of crime slowly changes, and it is rarely a product of random shock.

The authors appreciate dozens of law enforcement agencies that they are willing to provide us with data. We appreciate countless criminals, police chiefs, and commanders who have represented our efforts. We also thank a lot of colleagues who cooperated in this data collection effort.

According to Wikipedia, Ferguson effect is as follows. "The use of excessive protest action by the police, in particular the causal relationship between the police in Missouri State Ferguson and the increased crime rate in some major US cities," Beck said from his point of view, Explaining that censorship against Congress was more serious and showed that the police "retreated" the protected community for protest actions, as it led to an increase in general crimes, especially violence. crime

The great attention of the police is called the Ferguson effect promoted by the scholar Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute and promoted by others, and to note the immediate transfer of crimes in cities such as Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis Is important. Despite the greatest increase in murder in major cities and countries since 1971, many critics are opposed to the view that aggressive security declines will lead to an increase in the crime rate. This trend has also continued in 2016. But skeptical research criminologists like Richard Rosenfeld say that they "now think again" before the "Ferguson effect". "My view has changed," he told Guardian, watching the total number of murders increased by 17% in 56 major cities across the country. Rosenfeld claims that "something like the Ferguson effect is the cause of this growth". McDonald's critic of 2015 should focus on a new perspective to keep increasing violence.

It is widely speculated that a white policeman in Ferguson, Missouri, had a series of similar incidents across the country with young black men who were not armed, which led to an increase in the crime rate in the United States. In this survey we examined the Ferguson effect of the crime rate in large US cities. A summary and breakdown of the first part of the monthly criminal data on the data request and website of the police station in 81 major cities in the United States was collected around August 2014. Using the discontinuous growth model, we examine the influence from outside of Ferguson and judge whether there is a change in the direction of criminal trends adjusted seasonally in the months after Ferguson's shooting.