The Difficulty of Forecasting Economic Events

"For forecasting, we need more than the possibility to predict events, first we need to attach a timetable to the probability, which is enough to understand the known long-term predictive economics According to comments, ten economic forecasts are predicted during the past two recessions, and we can not predict what will happen and what will happen.

I emphasized that there are several difficulties in the preface. What we can not do is emphasize tremendous advances made in understanding the predictive models, methods and the nature of the measurements. "Who can do it and can not predict it.The bad record will record messengers, analysts and models but when we wrote the economy of the 1990s the economic forecast is an orphan of discipline Predictive theory and interest in practice again emerged This companion accounts for the results of the efforts of most intellectuals and points to a bright future for those studying at least economic forecasts.

"Difficulties require more than just the possibility of prediction for forecasting.Initially, it requires a timetable to relate to probability - The history of Mississippi is a history where the weather plays an important role Mississippi proved prosperous but Mississippi suffered the greatest damage and destruction in the worst weather, the state of Mississippi was also affected by the flood in 1927

Despite scientific opinion polls, public opinion polls, and opinion of various forecasts and experts, predictive markets are not only political outcomes such as elections, war, revolution, natural outcomes such as earthquakes and weather, We record success predictions of performance indicators. Economic variables such as sales forecasts and income forecasts such as GDP and unemployment rate. Empirical evidence confirms that the forecast market is more accurate and prediction errors are halved compared to traditional opinion polls. For example, Iowa's electronics market predicts more accurately than 451 in 596 times, compared with the main opinion poll of the US presidential election. The average forecast error is reduced by 5%, and the forecast market also outperforms experts' research to predict nonfarm employment, unemployment benefits, retail sales, confidence and other macroeconomic indicators.