Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies from the 1840s

Author: South Florida Emily Senate *, University of South Carolina Cary Mock, University of South Florida Jennifer Collins

Topic: climatology and meteorology, disasters, risks and disasters, geographical information science and systems

Key words: tropical cyclone, hurricane, disaster, meteorology, paleontology, historical climatology, GIS

By analyzing past activities of tropical cyclones, researchers can identify patterns of hurricane change, estimate the duration of hurricane return, and evaluate future risk of future storms. The North Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT) has been extended from 1851 to the present, but its practicality is limited due to the relatively short timeframe. One of the two known major hurricanes affecting the Tampa Bay area occurred in the 1840s and two were the most devastating hurricanes in the history of Cuba. If you exclude these data in the frequency analysis, the risk may be underestimated. In this study, we used the original text to make the history of the three original HURDAT hurricanes as comprehensive as possible. October 1844, October 1846, and September 1848. The main objective of this study was to rebuild the optimal hurricane hurdles for the three storms using the following data. Source of historical literature on the impact of the three major hurricanes on the area and the assessment of the storm intensity at landing. The data used in this study was obtained from major literature including ship's logs, newspapers and fortress records. The main source data is being used to reconstruct the ArcGIS 3 storm hurricane storm trajectory. The estimated strength of the system throughout the lifecycle is included in the locus of the storm and the strength at landing is classified according to the evaluation of Saffir-Simpson. A detailed survey of individual historical hurricanes is an important step towards a more comprehensive understanding of regional hurricane risks and hurricane changes throughout the catchment.

"A hurricane has occurred in the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean) that is the eastern part of the Americas and the North East Pacific Basin, a hurricane in the western United States, less than twice in the mainland of the United States. There are two main reasons. The first is that the northern hemisphere hurricanes tend to form in the tropical and subtropical latitudes and then move to the northwestwest. In the Atlantic, such movements often bring hurricanes to the east coast of the United States of America. In the northeastern Pacific, the same northwest orbit keeps the hurricane away from the west coast of the United States, to the more remote coast.

By analyzing past activities of tropical cyclones, researchers can identify patterns of hurricane change, estimate the duration of hurricane return, and evaluate future risk of future storms. The North Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT) has been extended from 1851 to the present, but its practicality is limited due to the relatively short timeframe. One of the two known major hurricanes affecting the Tampa Bay area occurred in the 1840s and two were the most devastating hurricanes in the history of Cuba. If you exclude these data in the frequency analysis, the risk may be underestimated. In this study, we used the original text to make the history of the three original HURDAT hurricanes as comprehensive as possible. October 1844, October 1846, and September 1848. The main objective of this study was to rebuild the optimal hurricane hurdles for the three storms using the following data. Source of historical literature, assessment of the regional impact of the three major hurricanes, and assessment of storm intensity at landing

Recent analyzes conclude that during the past 20 to 30 years, the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has increased in several areas including the North Atlantic. In the continental United States in the Atlantic Basin, the frequency of wind storms may decrease, but in this model it is expected that the frequency of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes will increase by 45 - 87%. As the seawater temperature rises, the wind speed of the tropical storm may rise, and if it landed it may be further damaged. Based on complex computer modeling, scientists expect the average maximum wind speed to increase by 2 - 11%, and a more intense storm will occur. Rainfall will increase even in the warm sea. This rainfall during these storms is expected to increase by about 20%, and this sometimes has more devastating influence, as Hurricane Harry showed in 2017.