Inflation: the good, the bad and the ugly

The inflation rate of the world is rising. According to the International Monetary Fund, the global consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise from 8% of the lowest in 2017 to 5% in 2017 and to stay at this level in the next five years I will.

However, Laurent Clavel, the manager of the macroeconomic survey of AXA's investment management company, and Jonathan Baltora, senior high-income portfolio manager of the company, mainly said that central banks changed each other intentionally without changing their interest rates Because it is. Reduction of government bonds

The first thing to note is that inflation is neither good nor bad; this is a matter of prospects. Inflation can be bad for some companies, companies are forced to raise prices and lead to customer confusion. For others, this may be an advantage to motivate their industry activities, otherwise it will happen elsewhere if the price is lowered. In addition, the level of inflation is important; a little may be desirable, and too many may stall consumer spending and confuse the economy

In some cases, the rise in inflation is a good sign of economic health, but in other cases it is bad news and there is no peaceful signal for a potential economic recovery. Prospective pessimism is an ugly contrast

After being shocked by recent signs of inflation, we are in the midst of inflationary control and are in the stock market. I report changes in inflation and are committed to excluding fears in excessive situations and warning in the right case. Last week the market received three noteworthy inflation signals, one good, one bad, and one an ugly signal. If you missed it, the US stock market has always been favorable, as the January Employment Status Report showed an average sharp rise in revenue per hour. The compensation inflation index showed a 9% increase over the previous year. As a result, the long-term loss of stock market volatility resumed, and the correction of 10% of Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPY) continued. But based on my observations of the US dollar, I think the market seems to be worried that the Fed is not just inflation. Since then, the market has paid close attention to all indicators of inflation and reaction.