Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

In the coming decades, humans will get more food from less land and water. This study quantifies the impact of four alternative development scenarios on food production in a special report on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Emissions Scenario. Partial and joint considerations are the shift in forest and agricultural demand from population growth impact on land and water resources, technology change, and population growth and economic development. The effect of income on food demand is calculated by dynamic elasticity. Simulation using the worldwide partial equilibrium model of agriculture and forestry department shows that the per capita food level increases in all investigated development scenarios and there is little effect on food prices. Between 2010 and 2030, the world's agricultural land increased by 14%. Restrictions on deforestation have a strong influence on land and water prices, but have little impact on world food production and food prices. Changes in income are forecasted to have the greatest impact on per capita food consumption, but the total food production has increased to a maximum due to population growth. By adjusting the intensity of land management, you can amplify or mitigate the effects of technical changes.

► We will use the partial equilibrium model of agriculture and forestry to study global food production development until 2030. ► Exogenous factors include population growth, economic development, technology change, and two alternative deforestation policies. ► In various scenarios, food prices, food consumption per capita, proportion of animals and plants are relatively small. ► Increase in income has the greatest impact on food production and consumption. ► The severe deforestation limitation has been almost completely relaxed by changes in land use, adaptation of land management, and adjustment of commodity transactions.

Based on predicted population growth and changes in dietary habits, it contributes to increased meat consumption, and it is expected that global food demand will increase by 70% in the next few decades. Agriculture has become one of the most affected economic sectors by the environment. Even if the demand increases dramatically, no additional pressure will be applied. How can we meet the growing worldwide demand while reducing the environmental impact of European food production and consumption

► We will use the partial equilibrium model of agriculture and forestry to study global food production development until 2030. ► Exogenous factors include population growth, economic development, technology change, and two alternative deforestation policies. ► In various scenarios, food prices, food consumption per capita, proportion of animals and plants are relatively small. ► Increase in income has the greatest impact on food production and consumption. ► The severe deforestation limitation has been almost completely relaxed by changes in land use, adaptation of land management, and adjustment of commodity transactions.

Impact of population growth, economic development and technological change on global food production and consumption

In the coming decades, humans will get more food from less land and water. This study quantifies the impact of four alternative development scenarios on food production in a special report on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Emissions Scenario. Partial and joint considerations are the shift in forest and agricultural demand from population growth impact on land and water resources, technology change, and population growth and economic development. The effect of income on food demand is calculated by dynamic elasticity. Simulation using the worldwide partial equilibrium model of agriculture and forestry department shows that the per capita food level increases in all investigated development scenarios and there is little effect on food prices. World farmland increased by 14% between 2010 and 2030. By adjusting the intensity of land management, you can amplify or mitigate the effects of technical changes.

Impact of population growth, economic development and technological change on global food production and consumption