Impact of climate change on malaria in Africa: a combined modelling and observational study

Africa is a hot spot of malaria infection and more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. The impact of climate change on the epidemic of malaria in Africa is controversial. Malaria is a major mediator-mediated parasitosis that mosquitoes of the genus Hamadaka infect humans. Malaria infection is a complex function of climatic factors that nonlinearly affects vector and parasite development. This study aims to predict the increase in malaria risk in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, although it decreases in West Africa.

Combine HYDREMATS, a new malaria propagation simulator developed based on a multi-year comprehensive field survey in East and West Africa, and the most reliable climate prediction model for regional dynamic reduction and strict geo-cycle model selection by CMIP 5.

Define the relationship between malaria intensity and temperature in bell shape. The center is 28 ℃. Two densely populated areas in Africa are expected to face future malaria risks. It is the edge of desert of East African highlands and West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, the temperature is much lower than this optimum temperature, and the warm future climate worsens malaria. At the edge of the Sahel in West Africa, the temperature is in the vicinity of this optimum temperature, global warming is unlikely to occur, and even reducing the burden of malaria. Malaria infection is restricted in the Sahel region of West Africa due to drought, unlike the East African plateau with much annual rainfall.

This study shows that the future risk of malaria caused by climate change between East Africa and West Africa is imbalanced and should affect guiding strategies for climate adaptation in Africa I will.

Cooperation agreement between the National Science Foundation and the Masdar Institute of Technology (Masdar Institute), Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, USA

This study was funded by a joint contract between the National Science Foundation and the EAR-0946280 and the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (Masdar Institute), Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) It was. , USA, reference number 02 / MI / MI / CP / 11/07633 / GEN / G / 00

The IPCC (IPCC, 2007b) is investigating the prediction of the impact of climate change on health. In the study of the potential impacts of climate change on malaria infections in Africa, the impact of three climate scenarios was evaluated, mainly because the altitude is high, the population at risk is not increasing significantly is showing. Expansion It also shows that the spread season increased in some areas, resulting in a monthly total exposure increase of 16% to 28% (Tanser et al., 2003). This analysis is based on a very large historical malaria surveillance data database but it is simplifying the situation too much by underestimating regional vector species response to climate change (1). It does not necessarily lead to increased mortality or clinical illness (Reiter et al., 2004)

The aim of this research is to establish a mathematical model based on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) that can predict and map Africa's current and future malaria distribution due to climate change. This study focuses on how to combine the regional climate model and the mathematical model of malaria transmission and provide a useful tool for better understanding future disease scenarios as climatic conditions change I will. Fixed the previous work to incorporate rainfall into the model. We focus on building a malaria propagation model based on realistic climate that captures the combined effect of rainfall and temperature on malaria infection dynamics. This approach provides insight into the impact of climate change on malaria infection.