How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models

This paper investigated the influence of industrialization and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China using nonparametric additive regression model from 1990 to 2011 and local panel data. The experimental results showed that there was an inverse U type nonlinear relationship between industrialization and carbon dioxide emissions. Regional urbanization in China adopts an inverted U-shaped model, with carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region and positive U shape in the central region. However, the nonlinear impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in the western region is negligible. Therefore, when reducing carbon dioxide emissions in China, it is necessary to consider different dynamic effects of industrialization and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in the three regions.

With the change in lifestyle and the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, China's carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly increasing. Prior to WTO (1980-2002), the carbon dioxide emissions of China's fossil fuel combustion (energy related emissions) and cement production (process related emissions) steadily increased. During this period these emissions increased from 1467 tons to 3,694 million tons 1, an increase of 8% per year. After China joined the WTO in 2002, the manufacturing industry in China rapidly expanded. As a result, the amount of emissions in China has increased sharply. From 2002 to 2007, the annual average emissions increased by 13%. With this expansion, China has become the world's largest energy consuming country and carbon dioxide emissions country. Currently, China's artificial carbon dioxide emissions account for about 30% of global emissions 3. Therefore, China plays an important role in reducing global emissions and mitigating climate change.

This paper investigated the influence of industrialization and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China using nonparametric additive regression model from 1990 to 2011 and local panel data. The experimental results showed that there was an inverse U type nonlinear relationship between industrialization and carbon dioxide emissions. Regional urbanization in China adopts an inverted U-shaped model, with carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region and positive U shape in the central region. However, the nonlinear impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in the western region is negligible. Therefore, when reducing carbon dioxide emissions in China, it is necessary to consider different dynamic effects of industrialization and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in the three regions.

How Industrialization and Urbanization Process Affects China's Carbon Dioxide Emission: Evidence for Nonparametric Additive Regression Model