How Changes in Oil Prices Affect Stock Market

Kollias et al. (S & P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 (2011)) used the nonlinear BEKK-GARCH model to study how war and terrorism affect the co-distribution of crude oil price and the four major stock indexes , CAC 40). While the terrorist attacks had a temporary impact on the prices of oil, DAX and CAC, while the S & P 500 and FTSE 100 indices were greatly affected, while war had a long-term impact on covariance I found out there was nothing. It is a market that is efficient enough to withstand the effects of terrorist attacks.

Over the past 15 years, many fate predictors have demanded the end of the stock market, the end of the dollar, or an oil price of $ 300 per year. Recently, the 2012 stock market crash has been required since 2012. This will become a more serious mother of all collapse than the Great Depression, the dollar will worsen further. I am an economist who got a bachelor's degree in mathematics and want to analyze data, so I tried other programs. In the second half we will try out some scenarios, but here we introduce a simple scenario. I will use the number of people over the age of 18 (including those over 65 years old) as an approximate estimate of the stock buyer and use the estimated number of non-employed persons after retirement as an estimate. . Seller's inventory

My idea is very simple. Looking at how stock prices fell over the last two years and how it responds to the daily fluctuations in crude oil prices, I decided that the market believes that the market is strongly related . Calculating this correlation ratio at different points in this period shows the superficial relationship between at least two prices. This is the case when crude oil price rises from current $ 37 per barrel (such as $ 45). The stock price of Seadrill will rise to 27 dollars. There is a need to supplement their bet, many short sellers may be squeezed at the moment, it may lead to a price rise

To put it briefly, the world market has recently been bumpy. Apple's revenue was $ 75.9 billion, but it fell short of expectations and the stock price fell. It is expected that Iranian oil will enter the market, supply will increase, oil prices will fall further. This is not good for Tesla, is this a good thing for consumers as a whole, will you save money you might use to buy more? Most of the stocks seem to be in the red, so the market does not think so. Then a negative article appeared in Bitcoin with the previous evangelist the next day ... you guessed it: btc is cheaper, 10%