Hindsight Bias

Hindsight biasing "Oh, I should not miss this question, I know the answer." No, it was not, I thought I did it. I have further proved the concept of hindsight, that is, "I always know this". This concept appeared in the late 1970s when psychologists Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischoff began to study scientific results and historical events that seems common sense, but in reality they did not know. People know that something has happened, the incident inevitably happened.

There is a phenomenon known as "posthumous prejudice". The posterior bias is that human beings created the illusion that everything we have in the past is certain. In retrospect, all our decisions and experiences seem to happen. In fact, however, all these decisions and experiences are uncertain. Whatever you may have done before to remove the uncertainty and stay alive, you will move on.

Post-bias: People will rebuild stories about past events and underestimate how frightened they are about them. This is prejudice that "I know that it was." When an incident occurs, people will exaggerate the possibility that they know the event. If the incident does not happen, people will misunderstand that they think it is unlikely. "The bias of hindsight has a detrimental effect on decision-maker's assessment, not whether the evaluation process is reasonable or not, rather than whether the result is good or bad, the observer evaluates the quality of the decision Successful actions are only revealed after facts, so making the decision makers blame their bad decisions and giving too little credit ... When the results are bad they often I have not seen it so I have been accused of having handwritten handwriting on the wall ... The behavior that seems to be cautious in my vision may seem irresponsible after negligence. "

Hindsighting of hindsight: When responsibility is criticized, it is easy to accept that failures were predictable. Suddenly, everything seems to be revealed. Of course, I failed because of this person's behavior. Post bias bias prejudges us to write neat endings for this story we saw from the beginning. Basic attribution error: Please remember the last mistake. Do you think you are responsible or is it due to the surrounding situation? I think that our mistakes are attributable to the environment, but soon it will become obvious that the mistakes of others are due to those behaviors.