Got Those OPEC Blues Again And Rational Exuberance

Overview of 'Recovery OPEC Blues' and 'Reasonable Prosperity' Since the price of intermediate crude oil in West Texas reached 13 USD per barrel in March 1999, prices have steadily risen at all stages of the economy I will. Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization (OPEC) is mainly responsible for setting production goals in the Middle East, but is seeking ways to raise prices. At the moment OPEC members "promised to cut crude oil supplies and boost oil prices" (Business Week, 48) The results were above expectations. Crude oil price reached 27 dollars per barrel on 23 November 1999, and it was a Gulf countries since 1991. The best price after the war.

But, of course, rational prosperity became irrational (Toronto is also very cold). Robert Schiller predicted the dot com bubble with his book "Irrational Prosperity". He also won the Nobel Prize and predicted the 2008 crash in his 2003 paper. Is there a bubble in the housing market? Schiller announced in the New York Times in 2004 that "People are excited about pricing and start to behave differently ... the bubble is always popular after all." But even Syrah ridiculed market cheerleaders it was done. In fact, when Schiller joined CNBC in 2005 and warned of imminent collapse, his co-team members just announced the book "You missed the real estate boom"? David Lereah was later included in Time magazine's "25 people to cope with the financial crisis" after 20-20 years. Ironic

Investors are human beings, and humans are not necessarily completely rational. Investors tend to use overreaction (or irrational prosperity) and various other options that may not be understood. The growth of behavioral finance research is trying to understand the behavior of investors who do not follow a rational model. For example, research on the prospect theory of Daniel Kerneman and research on behavioral economics of Richard Tuller shows that people have not made rational decisions. People make decisions based on various personal biases, mostly short-term results, not optimal results.

Investors and investors are ahead of themselves because "reasonable prosperity becomes irrational prosperity" for reasons. In this technology investment market, this may start at least three years, perhaps five years ago. As usual it is widely believed that this event will be different. Of course it is not. You can expect the best, but if this period is like a previous depression, the worst situation still exists. It is particularly worth noting that the stock market recovered in the past three months. Unfortunately, this does not change the fact that ubiquitous irrational prosperity