Global development trends and challenges: horizon 2025 revisited

In July 2012, as we knew at that time, analyze some key factors that influence the transformation of development cooperation Horizon 2025: Creative destruction in the aid industry. Five years later, we are focusing again on the 2012 scenario. 2017 is a big uncertainty brought about by political trends such as Brexit and President Donald Trump. In this report, we analyze how earlier scenarios endured the challenge of time, what I missed, what I learned after that.

Our starting point is that the pattern of developing financial institutions has undergone a major change. On the other hand, there are unexpected huge elements that can lead to major changes, but the legacy may still be short-lived. This includes the popular 'roaring' and the first movements of national interest, the global agreement on sustainable development goals in 2030, and subsequent changes from regular business to agenda for change. Less, and the proliferation of immigrants and refugees from conflict, and the sustained impact of development assistance content and public support. On the other hand, the trend with most influences is already obvious, and in most cases it has been identified in the initial work, but these trends grew faster than expected or changed direction. These include:

Poverty in fragile countries is increasingly concentrated, and global poverty reduction is correspondingly slowing down.

Sudden increase in refugees due to conflict and general migration, and sustained impact on development aid and public support.

The ongoing worldwide obesity epidemic is one of the biggest public health problems of the century 73. If the current trend continues until 2025, the global prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg / m 2) is estimated to reach 18%. According to the survey, 35% of men and 36% of women are obese 74. These trends are not limited to adults, and in America children the ratio of men and women exceeds 21%. Over the past 40 years, overweight and obesity have surprisingly increased in the United States. In fact, nearly one-third of children in the United States are estimated to be overweight or obese 75.

A recent report by the National Information Council of the United States has found that the global tension predicted by James and Altman is "Reliable". The report "Worldwide trend in 2025: transitional world" concludes that the world population expected to increase 1.2 billion by 2025 will increase the pressure on energy, food and water . However, the committee is not convinced that the world will leave the world market and calls it a "significant uncertainty" over the next 16 years 58.

The United States accounts for about 9% of the global automobile market. If the world follows the trend of the United States, it shows that the world electric car demand in 2025 is 14.6 million. Tesla can sell 3 million cars per year, the global electric vehicle market share is only 20%, far below the 45-55% share in the US electric car market. Market Tesla's market share in 2016 will decline and its total turnover may increase. Get it? Tesla's pie chart ratio will be reduced as a percentage of the pie chart, but since the pie chart grows bigger, Tesla slices will magnify with absolute values.