Future global warming may be double than what current climate models predict

A new peer-reviewed study published in Nature Earth Science concluded that global warming may eventually be twice as warm as the current climate model consensus suggests.

International research also pointed out that global sea level rise may reach more than 6 meters even if the world has reached the established twice. C. Rising goal determined by the Paris Agreement

According to a report from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, the focus of this study is that the observation evidence from three different warm seasons can be traced back to 5 million years ago.

Professor Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern said, "Observing the past warming period, many climate models underestimate many amplification mechanisms, suggesting that long-term climate change will increase beyond the prediction of the climate model There is.

The research team studied the Holocene's highest calorie, last interglacial period and Pliocene.

The Holocene and the last interglacial period were caused by predictable changes in the orbit of the Earth, but Medium-term Pliocene period was the result of high carbon dioxide concentration as it is seen today.

These three periods provide strong evidence that the earth will warm as the climate stabilizes. In contrast, our planet today is rapidly warming more than ever, as human CO2 emissions continue to increase. The report points out that it will take centuries to many thousands of years to reach equilibrium, even if today's emissions cease.

Alan Mix, co-author of Oregon State University, says:

"Sea-level rise can not be stopped for thousands of years, potentially affecting most of the world's population, infrastructure and economic activity."

"For minor changes, the climate model seems to be reliable, as in the short-term low emissions scenario as in the decades up to the year 2100. Director of Climate at New South Wales University A co-author of Professor Katrin Meissner says: Change Research Center

The point of expression is the viewpoint of the author, not necessarily AccuWeather, Inc. It is not. Or AccuWeather.com viewpoint

To further explore the cause and effect of global warming and predict future warming, scientists built a climate model computer model - climate system. The climate model is designed to simulate ocean-atmospheric reactions and interactions taking into consideration natural and anthropogenic surface changes. They conform to the fundamental law of physics - energy, mass and momentum conservation - and consider many factors influencing the global climate.

A highly speculative computer climate model emerged in the 1980s and causes great concern about global warming that lasted until the 1990s. In earlier versions of these models, doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide predicted global average temperatures to rise above 5 ° C (near 10 ° F). However, as models continue to improve over the years, their global warming predictions have been much slower. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted computer models as the average global temperature rose by 3 ° C. By 1992, it fell to 2oC in 1995, reducing forecast to 6oC (less than half of the warming forecasted by the early computer model). Even the latest forecasts are model based and may be too high to predict twice the amount of warming actually occurring when applied in the last century.

What is the future forecast for global warming? The prediction of climate change related to greenhouse warming is mainly based on the results of the climate model. These computer programs are designed to simulate the interaction of physical processes with their climate (Singer, 1989). Due to the change in nature these climate models may not be completely accurate in their prediction, but they are very useful for predicting the obvious signs of human influence on climate. Scientists have a model that predicts that the temperature of the Earth will rise from 1 ° C to 5 ° C by the end of the next century (Thompson, 1997). Even if the temperature of the Earth's surface rises several degrees, it may not sound so much, but even temperature changes of 1 or 2 degrees may cause global ripple effects. For example, the maximum difference in global average temperature difference between the current Ice Age and the last Ice Age is only 5 ° C (Green, 1992).