Exploring Why Some Hazards Are Easier to Predict Than Others

In my article, I will consider various case studies to explore why certain dangers are more predictable than other risks. According to the report, between 1974 and 1978, 497 natural disasters caused human injuries. There were 1,897 occurrences in the past 5 years, about 3 times increase. Between 1974 and 1978, 195 million people died for disasters and emergency relief; in the past 5 years there were 5 billion such victims in the past five years.

During emergency response, conditions and risks are often unpredictable (nonlinear) than planned activities. In general, if conditions and risks are predictable (linear), they must be handled appropriately in the standard operating procedure. In some emergencies, this may also be correct, and preparation and training correspondence is sufficient to manage this situation. In such a case, the operator can manage the risk without the aid of external assistance, or with the help of an alternative team that can prepare and intervene in a short period of time.

All countries face the risk of weather, water, and climate, but not all countries have the ability to predict and respond to them. In some countries, the Early Warning System (EWS) was able to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, but the scope of such systems may be limited. Fortunately, in some countries we devised a way to turn EWS into a more powerful system. A remarkable example is Shanghai Municipal Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), which cooperates with related municipal authorities to respond timely to natural disasters. With its success, the Shanghai Municipal Government and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) announced an early warning center within the Shanghai Meteorological Department (SMS) to handle various types of warnings including but not limited to hydrological phenomena and weather phenomena deployed.

Unlike other types of natural disasters, the risks and potential risks of volcanoes are properly positioned. Reliable forecasts can reduce damage caused by volcanoes, but these predictions only apply to well studied and fully instrumented volcanoes. Forecasts based on previous volcanic eruption statistics are too vague for certain short-term projections of volcanic eruptions. Prediction is a general announcement that volcanoes may erupt in the near future and predictions may include volcano parts that may erupt, relatively erratic statements describing the eruption time and possible types of volcanic eruptions is. Such predictions must be made publicly attentive to gain confidence from the relevant group so that they will comply with the preparatory measures reliably. In other words, preparation and planning are essential to mitigate volcanic disasters before volcanic eruption.