Doctors' prediction of certified sickness absence

Background The ability of a physician to predict how long a patient is absent from a patient is important for follow-up work for patients who are likely to be long-term absenteeism.

Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate the accuracy of patient predictions about the condition of the patient 4 weeks ago and factors related thereto.

Method A questionnaire was conducted for 796 authorized patients who were certified within 140 days from the beginning of absence at the initial visit. At the time of consultation, absentee events were marked as short term (maximum 2 weeks) and long term (3 weeks to 20 weeks). Collected by the physician's prediction on the absence situation of the patient 4 weeks before, the diagnosis, work capacity, the source of the clinical information used, and the presence of non-medical factors that could influence the assessment of the doctor's working ability It will be. Four weeks later, we made the predicted value "predicted recovery value" (PPV) compared with the patient's absence condition, "work recovery" and "proof of disease still". Analysis of factors related to prediction accuracy by multiple logistic regression analysis

As a result, the doctor accurately predicted that the recovery rate of short-term cases was 84% ​​(95% confidence interval (CI) 79-87) and long-term attack 53% (43-62). Corresponding PPVs for patients who were still certified were 72% (62-80) and 91% (85-94). In short-term episodes, physicians can accurately predict respiratory disease [odds ratio (OR) 84; 95% CI 36-5. 90] compared to the reference category "all other diseases" and psychiatric disorders It is high. Low (0.46; 0.24 - 0.89). In long-term episodes, there are not much musculoskeletal disorders (0.33; 0.12 - 0.86) and injuries (0.12; 0.03 - 0.48). Whether it is the age or sex of a patient or a doctor, the degree of deterioration of work capacity, or other factors is not related to the accuracy of the forecast.

Conclusion The doctor's prediction is very accurate and can be resumed for short episodes, even for patients certified with long-term episodes. Diagnosis is related to accuracy, but other factors such as physician's ability to work are not so

There is no medicine at school. Certificates that allow children to return to school due to illness or injury may be necessary after 3 days of illness. If your child is sick, please choose a doctor's certificate. When a doctor finds a child, the school nurse can meet with parent / guardian and prove that the child has returned to campus. 4. School secretary will inform the parents in writing if there are no absences twice or five times within a year. The principal shall send a full absence notice to the parent / guardian with 5 absences and 5 absences, ie 10, 15 or 20 absences.

If there is excessive absence due to absence or illness during the week, the principal or his / her designator must attract the attention of the doctor.

Method A questionnaire was conducted for 796 authorized patients who were certified within 140 days from the beginning of absence at the initial visit. At the time of consultation, absentee events were marked as short term (maximum 2 weeks) and long term (3 weeks to 20 weeks). Collected by the physician's prediction on the absence situation of the patient 4 weeks before, the diagnosis, work capacity, the source of the clinical information used, and the presence of non-medical factors that could influence the assessment of the doctor's working ability It will be. Four weeks later, we made the predicted value "predicted recovery value" (PPV) compared with the patient's absence condition, "work recovery" and "proof of disease still". Analysis of factors related to prediction accuracy by multiple logistic regression analysis