Crime, weather, and climate change

In this paper we estimate the impact of climate change on the spread of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on the thirty year monthly crime and weather data team in 2,997 US counties. We used a semiparametric bin estimator to control the fixed effects on a monthly and county basis to identify weather effects on monthly crime. The results show that temperature has a strong positive impact on criminal behavior and there is little evidence of lag effect. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change has an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 rape, 2 million severe attacks, 3 million simple attacks, 26 thousand robberies, 3 million theft , 2 million people will be invited. Theft in the United States and 580 thousand thefts

Climate change directly affects humans and natural systems. One special extreme weather event is not caused by climate change, but is triggered in a unique new climate. Higher temperature atmospheres contain more water and increase precipitation. Extreme heat waves are more common than ever. Melting of various forms of ice In recent years, a large number of large-scale disasters have occurred around the world. The global fire in Siberia, Greenland, Canada, and other parts of North America is very serious. Tundra burns, forests burn, people suffer. In Europe, severe heat waves, massive fires, and deaths from forest fires in Portugal have occurred.

The weather and climate are different. The way we predict weather and climate change is different. Since the weather changes everyday, the current weather forecast can be trusted for about ten days. On the other hand, the climate can be thought of as an average weather including long-term weather changes (eg year by year). The natural change in the climate of the earth has been in years, centuries, thousands of years. Scientists understand many factors that affect long-term climate, such as solar energy change and atmospheric greenhouse gas level, so long-term climate prediction is possible. Climate scientists do not claim to know how to predict daily fluctuations (weather) in the 21st century. Instead, they are predicting how they think that average temperature and precipitation (climate) will change for human activity.