Chapter: 2 Causes and Consequences of Climate Change

Simulation results to understand vulnerability 33 and adaptability of various human and natural systems

There are mainly two uncertainties in future climate forecasting. Scenario from emissions and other socioeconomic changes. Future emissions (and future vulnerability to climate change) will depend on a complex series of development around the world related to population, economic growth, energy, land use, technology and innovation, and other factors . It is impossible to predict how all these factors will change over the next few decades, but in this scenario we can look at the impact of various approaches.

The second uncertainty is the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas concentration, or "climate sensitivity". Even if we know exactly the future emissions, that is, even if the specified emissions scenario actually applies, it is impossible to understand how the climate system responds to future climate change Seriousness and the seriousness of its impact can not be predicted absolutely certainly. However, the direction in which the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gas emissions is very decisive. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will mitigate global warming and reduce serious consequences, rather than reducing emissions.

There is a big change in storage. Evaluation of the future climate change of the IPCC suggests that by the end of the 21st century, the average surface temperature of the earth rises from 0 to 11.5 ° F (1.1 to 4 ° C) compared with the average . The global surface temperature 34 during the period from 1980 to 1999 is as described above and this reflects the uncertainty of our understanding of future potential greenhouse gas emissions rate potential trajectory and climate system correspondence ing. A subset of these results is shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4.

A noteworthy feature of future climate projections is that the impact of differences between greenhouse gas emissions scenarios increases over time. For example, in the minimum emissions scenario and the maximum emissions scenario in Figure 3, similar temperature changes occur in the next few decades, but by the end of this century the temperature difference becomes very large. 35 This is both an issue and an opportunity. Opportunities for recent emissions reduction efforts to influence the outcome of climate change after decades (see Box 2)

Two other salient features of the climate prediction shown in Figures 3 and 4 are related to the relevant time scale. First, I will take the influence of greenhouse gas emissions

In the 2015 UN climate summit in Paris, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to 2 ° C or less to avoid catastrophic effects of anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, if science has a 50% chance of staying below 2 degrees Celsius, it will release about 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide (or 300 billion tons of carbon) from now for 2050 and then approaching zero I decided to be able. Currently, we emit 36 ​​billion tons of carbon dioxide annually. However, the potential reserves of fossil fuels include about three times the greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, 66% must remain in the ground.

Climate change is a fact. Mankind is causing it. It is probably the most serious problem faced by today's human race. Since the Industrial Revolution, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has increased. Therefore, the continuous rise in the temperature of the earth is a clear indicator of how carbon dioxide affects the earth. The main problem caused by global warming is the melting of the ice in the Arctic Ocean. - There is concern that climate change will have a very adverse effect on human life and the environment. One problem is the availability of food sources. Due to extreme temperature changes, farmers began to see the reaping of crops. Changes in temperature will reduce agriculture and crops. Heat generated by global warming also causes faster breeding of pests, resulting in reduced crop yield.