Black Swan

The hero of the movie 'Black Swan', a 28-year-old woman Nina Sayers showed many signs of disorder through her abnormal behavior. Professional ballerina / dancer: Nina's life is consumed by her occupation. Nina lives with her mother and seldom interacts with other people. She is suffering from concentration, restlessness, irritability, suffering from muscle tension, and sleep disturbances from nightmares. Nina is also very uncomfortable in social and intimate circumstances. She does not seem to be able to communicate with other people.

The term "Black Swan event" is part of the Risk Management Dictionary in 2007's Nassim Taleb's book "Black Swan: Extremely Impossible Influence". Taleb explains the extreme anomaly using a black swan metaphor, which is surprising for the observer, but after that the observer reasonably explains that it should be predicted. Russell Thomas recently made a speech entitled "You Know Black Swan - Think Again" during a SIRACon 's 2018 speech. In a blog post related to conversation, Thomas interprets the metaphor and Taleb's assertion and details the use and abuse of this term in modern risk management. One of the most useful areas of Thomas' research is his observation that the term "black swan" is used in a dual sense.

A black swan is a book about the importance of an accident. Taleb uses a black swan allegory to explain how to explain how people are known and seem to forget the occurrence of an unknown event. The analogy of the black swan comes from the initial idea that there is no black swan. Nobody had seen black swans before 1697. Therefore, people believe that all swans are white. However, in 1697, Nathaniel Hawthorne's literary masterpiece "The Black Veil of the Minister" was another fable during his writing. Nathaniel Hawthorne wrote anti-transcendence in the transcendental era; therefore considering his family sin, his view on his work is almost pessimistic. Hawthorn 's grandfather was a judge of the Salem Witch, so he took charge of over 20 innocent people.

As a result of the financial crisis of 2008, financial expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb became a pioneer of the Black Swan event. Taleb believes the black swan event is unpredictable, but it brings disastrous results. Therefore, people always think that a black swan event can happen, it is important to plan accordingly, regardless of what it is. He also pointed out that using the 2008 financial crisis and the idea of ​​the Black Swan event will actually strengthen the disaster against the future Black Swan event if a broken system is allowed to fail.