Black Swan Events: Global Emergency Management

As a leader in emergency management in the 21st century, we can better utilize satellite imagery and other available technologies and resources to enable "unthinkable" global impacts by "black swimming" type events We need to develop a new risk assessment and management model. . We anticipate and plan this type of activity to minimize its impact. These technologies should be connected on a global scale as well as a global early warning system similar to the tsunami warning system. According to Mileti, several measures can be taken to promote this paradigm shift in leadership thinking of emergency management.

The term "Black Swan event" is part of the Risk Management Dictionary in 2007's Nassim Taleb's book "Black Swan: Extremely Impossible Influence". Taleb explains the extreme anomaly using a black swan metaphor, which is surprising for the observer, but after that the observer reasonably explains that it should be predicted. Russell Thomas recently made a speech entitled "You Know Black Swan - Think Again" during a SIRACon 's 2018 speech. In a blog post related to conversation, Thomas interprets the metaphor and Taleb's assertion and details the use and abuse of this term in modern risk management. One of the most useful areas of Thomas' research is his observation that the term "black swan" is used in a dual sense.

Swans were originally a swan until the mutant swan was found in Australia in the 19th century. Essentially, Black Swan is an accident and process that does not belong to the bell curve (probability). A good example is the September 11 attack on Twin Towers in the United States, and the emergence of the Internet as a global phenomenon. Nasim casts doubt on human tendency, reducing seemingly complicated problems to causal events. In addition, he also provided rich term vocabulary and completion of his meaning to express his own view. He defended him from a deep philosophical point of view and excluded readers without apologies. And make fun of them

Black swans were unexpected events that analysts did not predict. Because of its irregularities, it broke market trends and patterns. Black swans may cause damage. For example, it only damages those bullish BTCs, and vice versa. But it can bring important benefits as it is available to the missing people of BTC. Can you predict a black swan? The exact time of such an event may not be predictable, but it happens soon and can be reliably predicted. We all remember The Big Short (based on actual story): Some financial analysts predict that future property bubbles will be independent of each other. Regarding the exact time of the collapse, the two groups were incorrect, but the essence of the forecast was real The rapid increase in the real estate bubble in 2008 - mainstream analysts were surprised, neglected the reality, missed it It was