Assessing the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Structural Unemployment in OECD Countries
[2024-01-03 12:20:33]
In many OECD countries, the structural unemployment rate may rise for a while due to the global recession. In this paper, we evaluate how the total amount of unemployment shock due to the economic crisis is transmitted to structural unemployment through delay effect due to the increase of long-term unemployment. The OECD estimates that the structural unemployment rate due to the crisis has risen by 3/4 percentage points, but this document highlights the wide range of disagreements across national borders. Still it is not as good as elsewhere, especially Spain and Ireland.
E31: Macroeconomics and financial economy / price, business fluctuation and cycle / price level expansion; JEL: J 58: labor and population economy / labor relations, labor union, collective bargaining / labor relations, labor union and collective bargaining: J68: Labor and population economy / wages, salaries and labor costs / wages, salaries and labor costs: public policy; J68: labor and population economy / mobility, unemployment, recruitment, migrant workers / mobilization unemployment and vacancies : Public policy; E24: macroeconomics and currency economics / consumption, savings, production, investment, labor market and informal economy / employment; unemployment; wages; intergenerational income distribution; total human capital. Productivity; C 13: Mathematical and Quantitative Method / Econometrics and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General / Estimation: General; C 22: Mathematics and Quantitative Method / Single Equation Model; Univariate / Single Equation Model; Variable: time series model; dynamic quantile point regression, dynamic therapeutic effect model, diffusion process
1997 - 1998 Debt crisis in Asia: Asia's financial crisis caused the affected countries to experience a severe economic downturn, with rapidly increasing unemployment, poverty and social dislocation. In spite of the catastrophic impacts on these countries, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, the Asian debt crisis provides valuable economic lessons and will make Asia a good place for world crisis in ten years. Today, many economists believe that the foundation of the Asian economy is better than 1997. In other reforms, Asian countries set foreign exchange reserves as buffers, most have current account surpluses, many of which allow fluctuations in exchange rates.
In many OECD countries, the structural unemployment rate may rise for a while due to the global recession. In this paper, we evaluate how the total amount of unemployment shock due to the economic crisis is transmitted to structural unemployment through delay effect due to the increase of long-term unemployment. The OECD estimates that the structural unemployment rate due to the crisis has risen by 3/4 percentage points, but this document highlights the wide range of disagreements across national borders. Still it is not as good as elsewhere, especially Spain and Ireland.
Causes of the socio-political crisis included a series of financial crises that led to bankruptcy in some countries, in particular continuation of structural unemployment of globalization among young people, an increasing concern of immigrant population, terrorist attacks . Russian attention interferes with European politics. People are increasingly aware that freedom does not bring hope for prosperity; American systems are no longer functioning. Many Americans believe that the time has come to accept closed society, not open society. What is lost is the link between American democracy and the American contacts of the world.